Part 1: The Immediate Aftermath
"We are changed forevermore." Thus spoke Senator Chuck Hagel (R-Neb.) on that day that still defies description. He wasn’t alone in that assessment. David Payne, senior vice president and general manager of CNN.com, which is going to show a live stream of the day’s events beginning at 8:30 a.m. on CNN Pipeline, said, "In many ways and to many people, it was the day that changed everything."
Who can forget French President Jacques Chirac proclaiming, “We are all Americans?” One day later, in Le Monde, Jean Marie Colmbani, wrote an article entitled, “We Are All Americans,” in which she said, “In this tragic moment...the first thing that comes to mind is this: We are all Americans! We are all New Yorkers, just as surely as John F. Kennedy declared himself to be a Berliner in 1962 when he visited Berlin.” And she reminded the people of France that the United States was the country “to whom we owe our freedom.”
In numerous small ways, the world reached out to Americans. Rebecca Sulock, in her blog, wrote of being in Europe at the time, and what happened after 9/11. “The rest of the trip we were showered with goodwill and sympathy: Switzerland, Italy, Spain, and France. The old woman who ran a hotel in Florence hugged us close when we first arrived. ‘We are all Americans,’ she said, crying. A businessman trying to get home had to stop in Athens overnight and had dinner in a local taverna. When the owner realized he was an American, he told everyone to stand up and raise their glasses. The he said, “"Shoulder to shoulder, until justice is done."
Remember that day. Remember how you felt. Did the world feel like it had just shifted on its axis, and nothing would ever be the same again? In the days and weeks following 9/11, did your eyes tear up when you drove down a street and saw American flags on virtually every home? Were you an emotional leaf in the wind tossed between rage and fear, vengeance and compassion? Did you think you were changed forevermore? Had 9/11 changed everything?
So much has been written about that day that the mass of data, anecdotes, theories, and analyses threaten to overwhelm understanding. Amazon.com lists 208,149 books. The five-year retrospective has already begun, and it will continue for...well, as long as the American people have the stomach for it. The airwaves, print, and the internet are flooded with stories; it’s great news from their perspective—emotional, historical, traumatic.
The president is going to make a prime-time speech, and the Republicans have already resurrected Osama Bin Laden and the 9/11 legacy. The soccer moms pollsters used to track with assiduous care are now security moms. It’s not crass politics—it’s simply politics.
But was it the day that changed everything? How does one approach this subject, then, in a way that’s non-partisan, yet political; that seeks to understand what has happened over the past five years without being side-tracked by evidence that supports every theory, including that the government itself was responsible for the attacks?
First, by limiting its scope to the attitudes, emotions, values, and beliefs of the American people, and to a lesser extent, politicians. Second, by relying on literally hundreds of survey research results rather than trying to determine whose vested interest is consciously or unconsciously distorting history. Third, by acknowledging the best pollsters acknowledge how difficult it is to understand the “why” because we ourselves don’t often understand our own reactions and emotions, but if poll after poll shows similar results, we can have some confidence in the findings. And finally, by examining behavior.
In his book, Strangers to Ourselves, Discovering the Adaptive Unconscious, University of Virginia psychologist Timothy Wilson has argued that while we may have difficulty figuring out what’s going on inside our own unconscious, we can gather clues from our behavior.
Obviously, the answer to the above question and to Senator Hagel’s statement is a simple “no.” Of course everything didn’t change. But that’s not very helpful when one tries to understand what did change and how it’s influencing American life and the political process.
The Public Faces A New World
In an article in Roll Call, Karlyn H. Bowman, a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, wrote, that polls taken immediately after 9/11 give a good indication of how Americans react. “A deeply religious nation found prayer a source of comfort. A deeply patriotic nation displayed the flag and sang the national anthem. A generous nation donated to relief funds. A majority of men and women in Gallup's September 14-15 poll said they cried.” (Note: I received an updated version of Ms. Bowman's report that may not be up on the site yet; this report is a summary of a multitude of polls taken at the time and after.)
A study, publicly funded by the National Science Foundation, and privately by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation and the Russell Sage Foundation, also demonstrated significant shifts in public attitudes. People saying that their fellow citizens are helpful rose 21 points to 67%; in terms of being fair, attitudes rose 12 points to 63%. Attitudes towards the military, the government, religion, and corporations rose to their highest levels in nearly three decades. And 97% (up 7 points) said they would rather be citizens of the U.S. than any other country.
In a recent interview, Caroll Doherty of the Pew Research Center compared 9/11 to the 60s and 70s, when there was a significant decline in people’s trust in government and institutions. “That’s an interesting counterpoint,” he said, “to this extraordinary change in public attitudes almost across the board on almost every subject to do with politics and even religion in the fall of 2001.” He noted that confidence in government and the media soared to an unusually high degree. “It was very unusual.”
But even that apparently simple data about trust in government is open to interpretation. Certainly after 9/11, many more people believed that Washington would do what’s right, but as Bowman says, “it’s not clear what exactly that meant." Two questions asked by ABC News in early January 2002 suggest the uptick was limited to national security and the war on terrorism.
Doherty said that there was a feeling of common unity and purpose in the immediate aftermath that seems to have lingered in some ways. He cited the recent British foiling of the terrorist plot. “Polls show people don’t mind the hassles and new security measures,” he said. “What’s happened is that 9/11 has changed the mindset. We didn’t get a spike in terrorism worries because people now see this is the world in which we live.” Even though 62% believe that the chance of a terrorist attack in the U.S. is at least as great as pre-9/11, “they don’t panic....There’s a sense that this is life today.”
In a January 2002 PublicAgenda/Pew Charitable Trust poll, 87% thought Americans would appreciate their country more, people would become more caring and thoughtful towards one another, and America’s elected officials would put politics aside and do what was right for the country. In addition, significant percentages of people thought these attitudes would last for a long time.
Leadership in Government
President Bush basked not only in the glow of increased approval from his fellow citizens, but from expressions of support and solidarity from around the world. President Roosevelt had achieved an 84% approval rating after Pearl Harbor. President Bush’s rating climbed to 90% and by mid-July 2002, an ABC/Washington Post story described his approval as “...the longest, highest run of presidential job approval since modern polling began in the late 1930s.”
Even Congress and the media were perceived more positively by the public to a degree that Caroll Doherty of Pew calls “unusual.” He also cites their international polling that showed strong support for the U.S. as well as a sense that America might now understand what it was like to live under the threat of terrorism. “There was great support in our early surveys,” he said.
A New Internationalism
One of the major shifts in American attitudes was a greater appreciation of the world outside our borders. Doherty said that people were looking outward, more interested in getting engaged in the world, much more aware of foreign news, and paying attention to overseas events “in ways they never had before.” In October 2001, “61% said to prevent future attacks, Americans should be active in world affairs. There was strong support for our alliances; there was really a lot of common views on these subjects.”
Politicians were quick to realize that the platform had shifted. According to a July 15, 2006 Washington Post article, presidential candidates realized that their international experience, once considered virtually irrelevant, was now a major factor. "We essentially transformed our [Democratic] convention into a VFW meeting," said Democratic strategist David Axelrod. "That would not have happened if not for 9/11."
Being tough on terrorism was a critical criterion. Just being tough was essential. Would you be willing to do what it takes to protect us? Are you willing to use the military to take out these terrorists? John Edwards, Kerry’s VP candidate thinks those factors still hold today. "I think 9/11 made national security/foreign policy a dominant issue in presidential races," he said. "I think Iraq changed the criteria by which people evaluate what matters."
Part II: How Did It All Change Back
There are people for whom 9/11 irrevocably changed their worlds; nothing will ever be the same. Most are relatives or friends of the thousands who died, but many are simply Americans for whom something was shattered or altered or simply changed ... for some there are positive aspects while for others there are only the negatives.
The New Normal
For America as a whole, it seemed in the immediate aftermath that the dramatic changes in attitudes might actually be signifying a new political paradigm. But what’s striking is how quickly we returned to normal, although not quite the normal of before. Bill McInturff, of Public Opinion strategies, calls it "the new normal."
McInturff said, "It didn't take America five years to recover. It was like a year."
Trust in government soared to 64% after the attack. By the summer of 2002, it had returned to it's traditional 30%. In December of 2001, Gallop found that 71% of Americans said religion was more important in American life. By March, according to a Pew Research poll, that number had dropped to 37%.
One key to why attitudes so quickly reverted is that, despite all the rhetoric, behavior had never shifted that dramatically. For all the calls to stockpile food and water, 30% told Harris Interactive pollsters that they considered it; the reality is that 9% did. By early March, 2002, Gallup found that number jumped to all of 13%--statistically almost meaningless.
What people reported is that they way they felt changed dramatically, not their day-to-day lives. Just over 50% told Fox News/Opinion Dynamics in late 2001 and early 2002 that their lives had changed in a lasting way, but 3/4 of those said it changed their feelings, not their behavior. When behavior fails to change, attitudes often regress to their former state.
Thus we find that the number who reported feeling depressed or had trouble sleeping declined fairly quickly. By March and September of 2002 Gallup found that smaller numbers had flown the flag, prayed more than usual, cried, or called loved ones “in the past two weeks” than had done so immediately after 9/11.
Karlyn Bowman, resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, said in a recent interview, "There was a temporary spike and people felt a little bit better about government after 9/11, but all those numbers have reverted to where they were before."
Bowman notes that people have accepted that terrorism is a real possibility in their lives, but they've incorporated that into their daily lives. The fear is worse in large cities, but, by and large, "they don't panic."
As noted in the previous article, Caroll Doherty of Pew Research said in an interview that the country has changed in ways we may not even recognize. He noted how little attention Bush and Gore paid to foreign policy in the 2000 presidential election. "That's not going to happen in the future. The landscape has changed so much since then."
He also has found that people are showing more interest and engaging earlier in the 2006 mid-term elections that is normal, and that there's more of a national and international focus than usual.
Bowman also cites "a level of pessimism in American that's just not warranted, say, by the economic indicators." People expect another attack, and they see the world as more dangerous.
Ironically, they still seem optimistic about their children's future. "What's profoundly affected is the view of the present," she said. That pessimism is reflected in how people view the war on terror. A 2005 Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll found that 24% believed the war on terror would be won in our lifetimes; 62% said it would not. Moreover, over 3/4 of Americans told Gallup in July 2002 that today's world is the most dangerous in the respondent's life.
When asked if people think life in the U.S. will ever completely return to normal, i.e., pre 9/11, 62% said no.
Civil Liberties vs. Security
In a Los Angeles Times poll taken in September of 2001, 61% of Americans said we'd have to give up some civil liberties to curb terrorism. By July 2005, in a PRSA/Pew poll, that number dropped to 40% with 53% disagreeing. The reality is that Americans are torn about this issue. Both Doherty and Bowman said that while there is great concern about government scrutinizing American's behavior, there's this sense that it may be acceptable -- just as long as "they leave me alone."
Bowman, however, notes that there has been a rise in concern about civil liberties, and she attributes it to the return of suspicion about government, the reduced fears of terrorism, and that some Americans have found certain government actions "objectionable."
But public attitudes are complicated and unstable on this issue. For example, in May of 2006, an ABC News/Washington Post survey found that almost half of Americans believed that the government wasn't doing enough to protect privacy. Yet over 50% in a Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll at the same time said they'd be willing to give up some personal freedom to reduce the threat of terrorism.
It's U.S. vs. The World
As noted before, Americans are more aware and more concerned about international opinion than at any time in recent history. While there has been support for America's military activities, the public wants the administration to take a cooperative stance with America's allies. A majority of Americans and nearly half of Republicans say that it should be a top foreign policy priority to improve our relations with our allies. The Pew Research Center conducted a poll with the Council on Foreign Relations and found that, by 49%-37%, "the public believes that the nation's foreign policy should strongly take into account the interests of U.S. allies, rather than be based mostly on the national interests of the United States."
At the same time, AEI's Bowman warns that it's difficult to get to the heart of this issue. Clearly people are aware that our image has suffered, and they think it would be better for us to have a more positive image, but she doesn't believe we have enough data to state conclusively how important this is for Americans. Further, she says that "there's a real question in the survey research community and among political scientists about whether we're seeing a new isolationism in the U.S. based on our awareness that we're not very well liked."
The Return to Partisanship and Divisiveness
According to a September 7 article in the New York Times, a big part of the “new normal,” is the resurgence of political divisions on national security questions. The coming together of Americans in a sense of national unity just after 9/11 has been buried amidst the deeply partisan views over Mr. Bush’s conduct of the war on terror and in Iraq. A recent New York Times/CBS News poll found wide disagreement between the parties on a host of issues from the war in Iraq to airport security.
David Broder and Dan Balz, in a July 16 Washington Post article, entitled, "How Common Ground of 9/11 Gave Way to Partisan Split," wrote that the spontaneous outpouring bipartisanship "was quickly swallowed up by a resurgence of partisan differences among voters and politicians." Ironically, issues of national security no longer held Americans together but created a "new fault line" that's split the parties.
President Bush has seen his ratings drop from the stratosphere to below sea level, apparently stuck below 40% approval. The challenges to his strategies in Iraq, the growing insurgence of the Taliban in Afghanistan, the failure to capture Osama bin Laden, the accusations of manufacturing evidence to support the Iraqi invasion, the questions of torture and secret prisons -- all have taken their toll.
Part of what has caused the divisiveness is the lack of clarity of America's strategic focus. Michael Hirsch wrote in Newsweek that the War on Terror is losing its focus. "What began as a crystal-clear fight against a small, self-contained group of murderers has become a kind of murky, open-ended World War III in which the identity of the enemy is less certain and our allies seem to grow less reliable."
Even the Bush Doctrine of spreading democracy to the Arab world has been called into question and held up as a reason for the failure of our military endeavors. Jed Babbin, the former deputy undersecretary of defense in the administration of George H.W. Bush recently cited as "a strategic error in focusing on democracy as the weapon to counter radical Islam and terrorism." He said that it's irrelevant if the Arab states are democracies as long as they don't threaten our security. "By making the establishment of democracy in Iraq a precondition to other action, the president has given control of the pace and direction of the war to the enemy."
The public sees what is happening. In a Washington Post/ABC news poll taken in August, almost 90% said that politics is just as partisan -- or worse -- than it was pre-9/11. Senator John McCain (R-Ariz.) has said he hoped that 9/11 would make us less partisan, but "we are more divided and more partisan than I've ever seen us."
Why?
How could the spirit of unity that sustained us through the aftermath of 9/11 have dissipated so quickly, leaving scars but so little nobility behind? Pew's Doherty acknowledges that it's hard to understand why things changed so quickly. "Some of it is inevitable," he said. "It's very difficult to keep that spirit. After all, people are human beings and prone to disagree."
On the other hand, he also has no question that the Iraqi War was a major factor in breaking the bonds, citing the plummeting Presidential approval ratings.
Broder and Balz take a similar view. They believe that the return to "national rancor and partisan conflict" was inevitable. There were deep divisions in the country after the 2000 presidential elections that hadn't healed, and, as they say, "In a 50-50 America, the lust for political advantage overwhelmed calls for consensus and cooperation."
Finally, Republicans and Democrats have long disagreed about the use of American force in the world, and the role we should play as the sole super-power. Those disagreements may have been covered over just after 9/11, but they remain deep and divisive.
In balance, what we've learned from 9/11 is how little we really understand ourselves or the world around us.